Math Logic

How a 10-point evidence score becomes a forecast category · the conservative math a CRO can defend in a board read.

The whole idea in one breath

A deal is not “good” or “bad.” It has evidence, or it doesn't. MIQL scores the evidence on five pillars, adds them up to a number out of 10, and the number tells you exactly what to call the deal. No debate, no vibes.

Step 1 · score each pillar 0, 1, or 2

Every deal carries five pillars: Outcome, Maps, Insight, Quantify, Leadership. You move each slider to the level the buyer's behavior proves:

OOutcome

0No evidenceNot capturedNo outcome statement in the record

1Seller actedParaphrasedSeller's translation of what they meant

2Buyer adoptedVerbatimTheir exact words, captured and visible in CRM

MMaps

0No evidenceSeller onlyEvery line is your commitment with the buyer's name attached

1Seller actedDriftingPlan exists but ownership skews seller; going stale

2Buyer adoptedBalanced + currentBuyer and seller own milestones; plan kept current

IInsight

0No evidenceRequested onlyMaterial delivered only when they asked for it

1Seller actedReactiveSome perspective shared, mostly in response to their asks

2Buyer adoptedEarned accessInsight you brought unprompted; the buyer engaged with it

QQuantify

0No evidenceNo numberCost of inaction is qualitative or absent

1Seller actedOur numberOur model, shared with them, not yet validated back

2Buyer adoptedTheir numberBuyer-stated figure, built from their own data

LLeadership

0No evidenceNo matchNo engagement at executive altitude

1Seller actedWorking levelContact exists, but one level below where it needs to be

2Buyer adoptedTitle-to-titleMatched altitude with confirmed decision authority

Step 2 · add them up (max 10)

Five pillars times two points each equals a maximum of 10. The score is a read of evidence, not a feeling. If you can't point at the buyer behavior, the pillar isn't a 2.

Step 3 · the score becomes a category

The 10-point score maps straight to a forecast category. No ambiguity, no negotiation:

Score 0 to 5

Pipeline

Hypothesis only. The buyer has not validated the outcome. Not committable.

Do this. Work the discovery motion. Get one pillar to real evidence (a 2) before you forecast it.

Score 6

Best Case

Evidence is present but the case is incomplete. Worth working, not worth the board.

Do this. Name the single weakest pillar and the one action that moves it this week.

Score 7

Most Likely

The next two weeks of execution. One missing pillar with a named coaching action.

Do this. Move the pillar, move the deal. Do not coach the deal in aggregate · coach the gap.

Score 8 to 9

Commit

Defensible to the CRO. EB engaged, MAP buyer-owned, Outcome validated. One pillar may sit at 1.

Do this. Protect it. Close the last gap to lock it before the forecast call.

Score 10

Commit Locked

All five pillars at full evidence. Survives a board read.

Do this. This is the standard for what should land in-period. Nothing left to chase.

The one rule to remember

Fact beats feeling. If the only proof is something you said or believe, it is a 1 at best. A 2 means the buyer did something you can point to.